We have started a new operation. It is called: “TWISE-ETF” (The What If Stock Experiment). It is a working title. We started in June 2020 with $1,300,00 and our goal is at least 40% profit in one year. To explain it in simple words: the-wiseguy.com ETF is following our “Strategy” trading only on our selected “Wiseguys” and conforming to our “Traffic light” for when to buy and when to sell.
The most important criteria is that we follow the traffic light to decide exactly what percentage of our portfolio we have to sell/buy to minimize our risk on downfalls and gain a maximum potential when we can. There is a lot of talk about an upcomming recession so we have build in a safety protection (the light),. The traffic light is our representation of the general economy. We look at the indicators and they provides us with a number (for the full explanation see the traffic light page). That number tells us what percentage we are allowed to invest in stock. When the economy is doing well we have a green light and invest 100%, when the traffic light turns red we sell our stock and wait for better times. This way we will not get the maximum result but we will protect our assets in case things go wrong. Thus protecting our money.
We (re)started this website in 2020 and after a few growing pains we ran at full strenght. It was a full out Bull market as we were recovering from the coronavirus lockdowns. Last year we have done great and our model portfolio has reached the 40% target. We claim to bring you at least a 40% annual profit every year. So we needed to check if all our good intentions explained in our strategy and arising therefrom our stockpicks in the list of wiseguys should actually result in a profitable fund. That is our very own The-Wiseguy.com ETF.
Off course Bill-Bull and I have our own portfolios and you can see the performance on our website. But the problem with that is that our private portfolios are made up out of shares we have owned for much longer. We started this website in June 2020. And we should actually have a portfolio that starts at the same time. So we are going to run a portfolio on yahoo finance that does just that. It meets all the requirements we set for our wiseguys stock and buy and sell orders we post on our website.
At the start of this ETF the traffic light condition was “Green” with 79% Stock and 21% Cash. That resulted in $1,050,000 in stock and $250,000 in cash.
We started this ETF with an initial value of $1,300,00.00
Our current value is $1,900,577.47
42.76 % return on our investment this year (with traffic light safety protection)
127.33% on the stock we hold (in a little over 2 years)
Some of our members suggested to make a yahoo finance portfolio for refference. And as always we go out of our way to listen to them 😉 Below you can find our portfolio displayed in a Yahoo finance portfolio. (click for enlargment)
* portfolio history below
- Update July 2021: “Traffic light“ is at 66% Stock and 34% Cash. Most of our sock is at a all time high. This is not the time to buy any more. Maybe we shall take some profits and sell. But as long as our traffic light stays in place we can not (yet). We diverted into Bitcoin this weekend because of the drop. Our TA gave a very strong buy signal at $50.000 for BTC. But that has nothing to do with the wiseguys in our ETF. Just wanted to let you know what we are doing on the side.
- Update July 2021: “Traffic light“ is slowly going up. As is our performance. After a dip in the beginning of the year we are back on track. Now at 64% Stock and 36% Cash. No change needed.
- Update June 2021: “Traffic light“ went down again. Now to 75% Stock and 25% Cash. We had to sell about 2% of our wiseguys.
- Update May2021: changed “Traffic light“ to 75% Stock and 25% Cash. We bought about 3% of all our stock. That is a small surprise. After the big drop in proffits this year we are finally going up again.
- Update April 2021: “Traffic light“ changed to 87% Stock and 13% Cash. We had to sell Xebec Adsorption because of a loss of 25%. We have to sell a wiseguy when it drops 25% because of no reason. When this happens something is wrong and our stoploss order will hit. This happened to Xebec (XBC.TO) We can not give it a clear reason so we must sell. See strategy for more details.
- Update March 2021: “Traffic light“ dropped to 69% Stock and 31% Cash. Therefor we had to sell about 4% of al our stock positions. I think we are not going to make the 40% this year. I hope we’ll get 30%.
- Update February 2021: “Traffic light“ unchanged still remains at 75% Stock and 25% Cash
- Update January 2021: “Traffic light“ changed to 75% Stock and 25% Cash! We sold 1.2 % of all our positions.
- Update January 2021: “Traffic light“ changed 79% Stock and 21% Cash We adjusted our portfolio by adding about 2% of all our stock.
- Update January 2021: Be aware “Traffic light“ changed 75% Stock and 25% Cash! We sold 5% of all our positions.
- Update December 2020: A quite week “Traffic light“ unchanged still 87% Stock and 13% Cash. – Our stock gained 7% this week. We are very happy. Merry X-mass everybody!!!
- Update December 20th: “Traffic light“ changed to 87% Stock and 13% Cash. – We made a profit of 5% last week so in order to be able to hold 87% stock we had to sell some stock. We sold 2% of all our positions ande we sold Audiocodes (AUDC) our worst stock position with a loss of -15,72%.
- Update December 6th: Unchanged. We are almost all in ! “Traffic light“ still at 91% Stock and 9% Cash. – We made about 4% in one week, all indexes are still up so there is no need to sell. The Fed is still creating extra liquidity at a rate of about $1 trillion a month. In our opinion that is enough to keep stockprices going higher for a while untill we hit “the big reset”. We will be waiting, untill than we have a TAA of almost 100%.
- Update November 29th: For the first time in 12 weeks we have to sell some stock!! It is not much, we had to sell only 4% but it is a big deal because it is a major change. For the last 4 months all we did was buy (and hold) and buy (and hold). But now for the first time in two quarters the “Traffic light“ has gone down. It changed from 94 to 91. Meaning that we have to hold 91% Stock and 9% Cash. – And it is the very first time in 4 months that it is going down. All the major indexes are up but the confidence has gone down and the Vix is rising. So if we add it all up that gives us a number and the number for this week is 91. . . . 91! . . . . 91% . . .
- Update November 22nd: “Traffic light“ changed to 94% Stock and 6% Cash. – We made a profit of 3% last week so in order to keep up with the 94% stock we had to buy some more stock. We bought Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) – @ $274,50. Beautifull timing. For us it was an almost perfect TA moment. We trade for the Long-Term (LT) and in the LT you will see that the shareprice dipped down just enough for us to buy. Looking back in one year you will see this was very nice timing. For the complete technical analisys please visit last Mondays post about the 3-star stock “Veeva Systems Inc.” by clicking this link: * * * stock of the week: VEEV
- Update November 15th: – Of the major indices some are up and some are down. But on average they are almost unchanged so our “Traffic light“ remains at 92% Stock, 8% Cash. The stock in our ETF are down a little compared to last week but we are also still at 92% stock of our total value. That means we are in line with our traffic light and do not have to make any changes.
- Update November 8th: – The “Traffic light“ is at 92% Stock, 8% Cash. Our ETF followed like most indices. So no changes to our positions were needed.
- Update November 1st: – The “Traffic light“ has changed to 91% Stock and 9% Cash. We have added Nvidia (NVDA).
- Update October 25th: – The “Traffic light“ has changed to 88% Stock and 12% Cash. We have added a little to our existing positions and added Hypoport SA one of our earliest wiseguys.
- Update October 18th: – The “Traffic light“ has changed to 85% Stock and 15% Cash. Therefor we had to buy some more. We decided to add Ocado Group from our *** List of wiseguys.
- Update October 12th: – The “Traffic light“ is back to GREEN with 83% Stock and 17% Cash. Because of that we had to add about 2% more shares to our portfolio positions (See My Holdings for more details).
- Update October 4th: – The “Traffic light“ remained at 80% Stock and 20% Cash. We will mark time. The US elections are coming up and there are more Covid-19 worries. We expect some buying oportunities ahead but not yet.
- Update September 27nd: – Altough everybody is afraid of a second wave of coronavirus the markets do not react to it. Instead they are going higher. Most indices are up from last week. Confidence is up and the vIX is going down. That measn our “Traffic light“ goes up and with 3 points this week. We are almopst in the green zone. One point left. It is at 80% Stock and 20% Cash. So we bought some more stock. We have increased our positions with about 7%. That doe snot 1 in 1 correspond with 3 points but for more info read the blogpost ETF.
- Update September 20th: – We are finally back to where we belong. Almost in the green zone. The “Traffic light“ is at 77% Stock and 23% Cash. That means we have to buy some more stock. We selected Servicenow (NOW) and MSCI Inc. (MSCI) from our ** list of wiseguys to match the 77% stock.
- Update September 14th: – Slowly we are getting back on the buy-side. “Traffic light“ changed to 64% Stock and 36% Cash. We added ITM Power (ITMPF) from our List of Wiseguys. Started with an 8% position to match the traffic light.
- Update September 6th: – “Traffic light“ changed to 58% Stock and 42% Cash. adjusted our positions accordingly.
- Update August 30th: After the negative week of last week. This week the indices moved up just a tiny little bit. The S&P500 is up 0.4%, The VIX moved 0.08% only the Nasdaq gained more than 2%. Mainly driven by the jump in FANTANG stock(split) news. Other than that it was a really slow week which is confirmed by our “Traffic light“ because it is stuck at 60% stock (and 40% cash). Maybe we need a pause for reflection. That is why we have the “Traffic light“. Sometimes it is better to just wait and see what will happen than to rush in because of FOMO*. The-Wiseguy once said: “Sometimes patience is a stocktraders most effective weapon” ….. Ooooh and fomo means fear of missing out 😉 …..
- Update August 23rd: We had to sell about 8% of all our stock positions because the general macro economic situation is starting to get critical. The “Traffic light“ changed to 40% Cash and 60% Stock. The indices are telling us we have to have almost 50% cash. We are getting close.
- Update August 16th: The “Traffic light“ changed to 36% Cash and 64% Stock. That means something is up – A flight to safety? We sold about 5% of all our positions. And increased our cash position.
- Update August 9th: – Traffic light is at 30% Cash. We sold 1 to 2% of all our positions The “Traffic light“ changed to 70% Stock and 30% Cash.
- Update August 1st: – Traffic light is at 26% Cash. We sold 50% of our worst position being Argenx (ARGX.BR). Argeenx was at 5% loss. Now we hold have only 235 shares left. The “Traffic light“ changed to 74% Stock and 26% Cash.
- Update July 26th: – There has been a sell off in stock because of corona virus fears. This might be a good time to buy. The “Traffic light“ changed to 77% Stock and 23% Cash. We bought Powercell PCEL.ST form our list of wiseguys. “Be greedy when others are fearfull”
- Update July 19th: – No changes “Traffic light“ unchanged still 70% Stock and 30% Cash.
- Update July 12th: – There is more fear in the markets as predictions become more uncertain. The “Traffic light“ changed to 70% Stock and 30% Cash. That is why we had to sell 6.5% of our portfolio to stay on track with current “Traffic light“ condition.
- Update July 4th: – “Traffic light“ changed to 75% Stock and 25% Cash. We did not have to buy anything because the rise in stockprices made up for the 1% change.
- Update June 29th: – “Traffic light“ changed 74% Stock and 26% Cash. – – SOLD Ehealth (EHTH) -$20.682,00 Loss (-19,5%)
- Update June 24th: – No changes “Traffic light“ unchanged still 81% Stock and 19% Cash.
- Update June 22nd: – “Traffic light“ changed to 81% Stock and 19% Cash. adjusted our positions accordingly.
- Update June 6th and 15th: – Started buying all stock from “The List” each at 9% of our total value ($ 1,300,00.00). The Traffic light is at 79% Stock – 21% Cash.
For our members:
Upon request we will (re)send all the updates, overviews and holding summaries. And you can always download them from the password protected part of our website, the wiseguys members area.
Please keep in mind that the-wiseguy.com provides high-quality information. However detailed and excellent it might be. It is not financial advice.
Our lawyer would say: The-wiseguy.com tries to help you form an opinion on buying or selling a certain security. We will never tell you to do so. Also we may already hold a position in a certain stock or may never buy it at all. Our information does not take in account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Therefor we are not responsible for any gains or losses you may experience. Any security mentioned should be examined with ones own due diligence. Always consult a licensed and trustworthy profesional before making a financial decision.