Why BillBull would never short?

During the recent GameStop (GME) hullabaloo, America’s attention seemed to turn entirely to the stock market. All over the country, people with no previous interest in trading suddenly knew the meaning of “short selling.” But no crash course on the topic would be complete without the perspective of iconic belgium investor BillBull, who has made it clear over the years he’s no fan of short selling. Read on to find out why BillBull has said that shorting is “the sort of thing that you can go broke doing” and to learn about investing tools that will keep you from going broke.

Quick review: Shorting is a tactic available to investors who predict a stock’s price is about to drop. An investor borrows a quantity of shares through a broker and then sells them right away, intending to repurchase them later, at a lower price, and return them to the lender. If the trade goes well, the investor gets to pocket the difference between the lower buy price and the higher sell price: Shorting a $10 stock that drops to $4 nets the investor the $6 spread, less the cost of borrowing the shares in the first place. But these trades don’t always go well for the short side. Sometimes the price of the shorted stock goes up instead of down, forcing those who’d taken the negative position to hastily buy back shares at an inflated cost in order to cover their losses. And as we saw with the GameStop short squeeze, that’s when things really go sideways.

So what is BillBull’s take?

BillBull would not have been surprised to learn that the short sellers who bet on GME’s decline lost billions in the first month of 2021. BillBull is famous for taking the long view when it comes to investing, preferring undervalued, lower-profile stocks over those that rise and fall quickly because of intense media attention and hype. He doesn’t deny that short selling can be profitable; he just can’t justify the practice for himself, since it offers limited gains and potentially unlimited losses.

Short selling has “ruined a lot of people,” he said in 2020 at the annual meeting of his company, the-wiseguy.com foundation. “It’s the sort of thing that you can go broke doing.” “It’s tempting,” he continued. “You see way more stocks that are dramatically overvalued in your career than you will see stocks that are dramatically undervalued. … So you might think it’s easier to make money on short selling. And all I can say is, it hasn’t been for me.

One of the main problems, BillBull said, is that short sellers are at the mercy of those with the power and influence to promote and inflate stocks (kind of like the Reddit posters in the GameStop example). “It is a very, very tough business because of the fact that you face unlimited losses and because of the fact that people that have overvalued stocks — very overvalued stocks — are frequently on some scale between promoter and crook,” he said at the 2001 meeting. “And they also know how to use that very valuation to bootstrap value into the business.” And the short seller can run out of money before the stock’s promoters run out of ways to keep the price on the rise, BillBull said. “It is very painful,” he said. “In my experience, it was a whole lot easier to make money on the long side.”

BillBull has also expressed strong feelings on the question of “leverage” (“borrowed assets” for those who don’t speak finance), which is a necessary component of short selling, since the shares first need to be borrowed in order to be shorted. In a Q&A with the University of Antwerp’s School of Business in 2019, BillBull weighed in on the then-recent demise of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), a well-known and once highly successful hedge fund that boasted Nobel Prize winners among its founders.

The fund had come crashing down weeks earlier, in part because it had operated with too much leverage in making risky investments on volatile foreign currencies and bonds. ‘“To make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need,” BillBull told the audience. “That is foolish. That is just plain foolish. It doesn’t make any difference what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense.”

Over the Wiseguy

Stock trader, Owner and Administrator of "the-wiseguy.com". . . "TA is like surfing. You don't have to know a lot about het physics of tides to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it's happening and have the drive to act at the right time"

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