Traffic Light And ETF Update

A short summary this week. 7 months have past. Today it is the 14th of December 2020. Compared to last week the Traffic light is still at 91. So that means that in our ETF portfolio we have to hold 9% in cash and have 91% invested in stock. It’s a simple strategy. We only buy wiseguys. It is a list of about 20 stocks we selected that you can see in The List”. And we try to buy them at a specifik time. The timing is determined by our Traffic light. We started this project June of this year and so far in the 7 months that have passed our stock returned a 38,38% profit. Last week they have gone up about 3% and we still have 2 weeks to go this year. We expect to end this year at around 40% not bad with only a few selected trades. You can find the full strategy in the menubar on top.


Traffic light: Our Cash / Stock Ratio: the-wiseguy.com / The Traffic Light

The List: Our List Of Wiseguys: the-wiseguy.com / The List

The ETF: Our Latest Fund Changes: the-wiseguy.com / TWISE ETF



OLDER POST AND ETF HISTORY

Update December 6th:

For the first time in 9 months: “unaltered”. We made about 4% in one week. That made the worries we had last week slowly fade away. The week before, for the first time in 12 weeks our Traffic light went down. But this week all indexes did go up so there is no need to sell anything now. The Fed is still creating extra liquidity at a rate of about $1 trillion a month. In our opinion that is enough to keep stockprices going higher for a while untill we hit “the big reset”. THjat is a term we heard this week for the next big correction and we think it suites pretty well.We We will be waiting for the big reset but untill than we have a TAA of almost 100%. Our ETF is Unchanged. Our Traffic light is still at 91% Stock and 9% Cash. 

Update November 29th:

91% – For the first time in 12 weeks we have to sell some stock! 4%! It is not much. We had to sell only 4% but it is a big deal because it is a major change. For the past 4 months all we did was buy (and hold) and buy (and hold). But for the first time in 12 weeks the Traffic light has gone down. It changed to from 94 to 91. Meaning that we have to hold 91% Stock and 9% Cash. – And it is the first time in 4 months that it is really going down. All the major indexes are up but the confidence has gone down and the Vix is rising. So if we add it all up that gives us a number and the number for this week is 91. So we have to sell some stock.

The light is still very much green, dark green I would say and 91% stock is almost all of our assets. Selling 4% might not mean much and if we will be going up again next week it will not mean a thing. But maybe just maybe thus might be the start of a new correction.

If you want to see the whole Traffic Light Chart of the past few months click here: The Traffic Light. And you can see all the changes we made to our ETF if you click on “Holdings” at:  TWISE ETF


Update November 22nd: Traffic light changed to 94% Stock and 6% Cash. – We made a profit of 3% last week so in order to keep up with the 94% stock we had to buy some more stock. We bought Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) – @ $274,50. Beautifull timing. For us it was an almost perfect TA moment. We trade for the Long-Term (LT) and in the LT you will see that the shareprice dipped down just enough for us to buy. We can not predict a market crash or another banking crisis. Every 15 years or so there will be a correction/crisis. But we can not tell the future so we can not predict those. But if nothing seriously bad happens (the other 14 years out of the 15) most stock will go up. And the stock we pick have proven to rise at least 30% a year for the past 5 years. So there is noreason why that should change now. Again: If nothing goed wrong … Looking back in one year you will see this was very nice timing and we are set up for a nice profit. For the complete technical analisys please visit last Mondays post about the 3-star stock “Veeva Systems Inc.” by clicking this link: * * * stock of the week: VEEV

Veeva Systems Inc. – Logo



  • Update November 15th 2020:

What happened to the stockmarkets last week?

And consequently what happened to our traffic light and our etf? It has been a weird week. Most of the Tech stock and fast growing stock of the last 18 months are all down. And the “old economy” stock like banks and oil companies are up at least 10%. What could be the reason and is it justified? Some people say the fear of corona virus is over because Pfizer announced that it’s vacin covers 90% of the cases but I do not buy that. We are in the middle of the second wave of covid-19 virus and it is not over. We will be fighting it for at least a year and even after that things will never be the same. The other reason could be the election of Joe Biden as president. Although I do agree that it is a better for the world economy. I do not believe that it will be a major change. For one mr Trump is still president until January and the second reason is that his policy will be marginal different. The difference in votes were only a few percent. That means only a few percent of people did disagree with how things are going right now. He is the president but he does not control the economy that much. It is done by consumers and business leaders. They decide what direction the economy is going. And they have not changed. Of the major indices some are up and some are down. But on average they are almost unchanged so our “Traffic light“ remains at 92% Stock, 8% Cash. We are all out bullish with a little money left to strike when we see some good opportunities. Like last week. We did buy some shares of companies that wre down for 2 or 3 days (and they recovered nicely). See our posts about stock we bought. The stock in our ETF are down a little compared to last week but we are also still at 92% stock of our total value. That means we are in line with our traffic light and do not have to make any changes.

  • Update November 8th

The first week of november was a profitable week on the stock exchanges. Our average gain percentage is 14%. Some stock are up more than 20% and the worst some are up only 2 or 3%. But the stock we bought last NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 16,8% so that is a super wiseguy. Naturally we are very pleased with this result. Let’s keep up the good work! And hope the next few weeks will be the same direction. For the complete summary click: here

  • Update November 1th

Most indices are down this week and there is fear of another stockmarket crash like we had in March. In one month the stockmarket lost 20% of their value. And it is likely that this will happen again. This might seem strange but we believe it is a very good time to buy stock now. “Be greedy when others are fearfull” and we think it is time to be greedy.

Corona fears have all european countries in a strong grip

Presidental elections have american stockmarkets on edge.

We could sell all our stock now and wait for the dip but probably we will miss it and have to buy at higher prices. It is likely we will go down in the short term. But to exactly time the market crash is nearly impossible and the rebound will be swift. That is why we started buying alreay and we wil buy some more next week, and probably the week thereafter.

The result is that we will buy some stock at lower prices because compared to the last few weeks they are finally a little bit cheaper. And next week they can be even cheaper. But in the end when the markets go up again we will have a lot more shares at reasonable prices. Nobody can predict the stockmarket but when they go up we will be nicely positioned.

The Wiseguys we have selected are still doing what they are supposed to, our ETF is up almost 15% in only 5 months and our trafic light is on a higher percentage than it has ever been.

  • Update October 25th

It is time for our weekly update. The Traffic light has changed to 88 this week. That means 88%% Stock and only 12% Cash. That is really positive! It looks like the markets are expecting a big push upward soon (But wat will happen when he looses?!?!?)

We had to update our ETF acordng to te new traffic light. That si why we have added Hypoport SA to our portfolio. It is one of our earliest Wiseguys. We believe that it is a really nice time to buy. Our TA gave us a super buy signal for this stock.

Over the Wiseguy

Stock trader, Owner and Administrator of "the-wiseguy.com". . . "TA is like surfing. You don't have to know a lot about het physics of tides to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it's happening and have the drive to act at the right time"

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